Why are tourists thin on the ground for the Paris Olympic Games ?

Since the beginning of July 2024,the media have been talking about a drop in sales at restaurants and shops in Paris, apparently discovering what is referred to as an “eviction effect”. Yet we had been talking about this for at least four years, in several publications and at conferences with stakeholders (the State with the DIJOP [Interministerial Delegation for the Olympic and Paralympic Games], Paris City Council, the COJO [Organising Committee for the Olympic Games], etc.). We therefore seem destined to keep coming back to this subject.

The scientific literature shows that previous Olympic Games were associated with the eviction of tourists: the announcement of the importance of the event and the anticipated congestion dissuade recreational or business visitors from travelling to the city during this period. city during this period. As a result, tourist numbers have occasionally fallen during different Olympic Games, albeit in specific contexts (Beijing 2008 at the height of the sub-prime crisis; Moscow in 1980 with the boycott of the Games; earnings in Los Angeles in 1984 were down on the figures for 1982 when a record number of tourists had been attracted; Athens received 20% fewer visitors during the Games and lost two million tourists in 2004 compared with 2002; in London, the number of tourists between July and September 2012 fell by 4% compared with the same period in 2011, etc.). Although the Barcelona and Rio Olympic Games were associated with an increase in tourism, in the first case the city was not a tourist destination in 1992, and in the second (2016), the summer was the low season.

The deterrence of tourists

A survey of 1,265 tourists in Paris at four of the city's main tourist sites, which we conducted in 2019, confirmed that Paris was unlikely to benefit from a boost to tourism due to the Games. Only 13.1% of tourists stated they wanted to come to Paris during the 2024 Games, 50.4% had no intention of doing so and 36.5% were undecided; slightly more domestic tourists (14.7%) wanted to come to Paris in 2024 than international tourists (12.8%). In the same vein, when asked whether they would have visited in 2019 if the Olympic Games had been held on that date, 54% of the respondents said yes, while 46% said no. We estimated that more than 715,000 visitors would not have come to the city in 2019, particularly those whose visit related to tourism (1,555,663 hotel arrivals were recorded in July 2019).

The drop in the number of tourists, when it occurs, leads to lower than expected tourism revenues, even though Olympic tourists, on average, spend twice as much as other tourists. The beneficiaries of tourism revenue are also likely to differ according to the destinations, given the specific behaviour of sports tourists. The interests of tourists who come for the Olympic Games differ from those of “traditional” visitors who come to explore the city. The “tourism budget” is therefore transferred and focused on the Olympic venues and their events, to the detriment of the usual venues. This is the substitution effect, defined as the replacement of spending in the main tourist sites by spending associated with the Olympic Games and associated sites.

Substituted expenditure

In Japan, following the drop in the number of tourists at the 1964 Olympic Games compared with 1963, revenue was lower than expected. Only shops selling cameras, transistors and portable televisions, for which Japanese companies enjoyed a competitive advantage at the time, saw their sales grow.

In both Atlanta and Sydney, tourism receipts were lower those forecast prior to the events. During the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles, restaurant sales were between 20% and 40% below their annual average during the first week of the Games and only in the average thereafter. 80% of restaurants reported a decline in business.

Most attractions in and around Los Angeles saw their turnover fall by between 20% and 35% compared with normal months of July and August. Visitors to Los Angeles during the Games were sports fans who came for the Olympic Games and generated little revenue for restaurants and tourist attractions. Small businesses in Los Angeles saw their sales fall by between 15% and 25%. The Olympics contributed to this decline, with media coverage prior to the Games anticipating heavy congestion and higher hotel prices, and with Californian tourists avoiding Los Angeles because of the Games.

In London, the chief executive of the tourism trade association UKinbound reported a drop in visitor numbers of at least 30% during the fortnight of the Games, with many shops, restaurants, theatres and entertainment venues hit by a significant decline in business.

Museum attendance suffers

Museums are also affected. In London, for example, attendance at the British Museum – one of the most popular attractions for foreign visitors (visited by 65% of foreign visitors) – fell significantly between July and September 2012 compared with previous years.

Changes in residents' habits

In tourist towns, these eviction and substitution effects have a spatial and temporal dimension, with tourists coming to Olympic venues but fewer visiting other sites, and some tourists deciding to come in the years before or after the event.

Finally, residents are also likely to modify their behaviour during the Games; some will leave the city to avoid the congestion associated with the event, while others will attend the competitions or watch them with friends on television, which reduces other types of outings and changes their dining habits. During the Olympic Games, residents eat more fast food. In Los Angeles, residents spent more on the Olympic Games than on other leisure activities in Southern California or outside the region.

In Paris, our survey showed that many museums and tourist sites were likely to see their visitor numbers fall. The tourists questioned who had visited museums (Rodin, Orsay, Centre Pompidou, etc.), the Luxembourg Gardens, Père-Lachaise, the Tuileries, Saint-Germain des Prés, the Latin Quarter and the Marais said that they did not plan to come to Paris in 2024... Finally, the survey showed that tourists who were visiting many of Paris's emblematic sites (the Louvre, Montmartre, Notre-Dame, the Champs Élysées and the Eiffel Tower) would not have come to Paris in 2019 if the Olympics had been held then, and were not planning on coming for the Paris Olympics in 2024.

The decline in business for Paris shops and restaurants was therefore to be expected.

What impacts will there be in the medium term?

And in the longer term, can we expect to see an increase in tourism linked to a halo effect? The literature shows that tourist numbers do not always benefit from the Olympic Games in the long term. With Paris already so well known, this is highly uncertain. However, the image-enhancing effects associated with the Olympic Games could be greater for Seine-Saint-Denis, including in terms of boosting its tourism, due to its contrasting image and the relative lack of awareness of most of its tourism resources. However, these image-enhancing effects will depend on the smooth running of the Games.